This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week considering it is a more compact card and begins at 10:15am ET. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at the $25k decoration, and then I will likely have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a great amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I don’t believe there are any money locks this week, so I needed to bring a cash plan I use a lot of the moment, which can be punting in money and accepting a loss. I don’t think Roxy gets the win here, but she’s just $6.9k and that I believe she gets 15-minutes of action. I like the flooring which comes with that and punting along with her cheap price allows us to fit in more of those higher favorites with our other five spots. We don’t need 6 wins in cash games, so I do not think we will need to even try for it. I like playing cash games safer and if I can lock in 25-35 points in a reduction from Roxy in her cheap price I am totally ok with that. I look for 4 wins in money and over 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal weekly. Let everyone else make the mistakes and just shoot for a score which may conquer 50% or more of the field.
GPP play of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This is an all-in fight for GPPs in my view and I like Overeem as one of my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so that I would be amazed to see this go all 5 rounds. In addition, I think Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is amounts before him at the game that is spectacular. The only shot Oleinik has of winning on the feet would be by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing entry. Besides those two outcomes, Overeem will smoke on the toes. I also believe Overeem will work his way back to his toes if he is taken down and the more Oleinik shoots takedowns the faster he will gas outside. I enjoy the -175 ITD lineup which is included with Overeem here and I think he gets a complete in round 1 or 2. That should provide us close to 100 DK points or even more, and I need that in lots of my GPP lineups.
Underdog drama of the week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they’re released. We get Fiziev here for $800 cheaper than Mustafaev and he’s favored to get the win. I was very impressed by what I saw out of this kid and I agree with the line movement. I do think he gets the win here, but it’s the DK value that we want to be sure to find exposure to the weekend. I think he is an excellent play cash games with the current price and I hope to be obese on him in GPPs as well. We must roster underdogs in our lineups and if we could use a popular as one of these”underdogs” I am usually on board for it.
Fade of the week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of this week because of her $9.3k price label. I really do think she has the win here since I said earlier, I simply don’t see how she’ll pay off that wages with no finish. I really don’t see her shooting any takedowns in this game, and I don’t want to rely on her getting knockdown points . So, we’re only going to be getting 0.5 points per significant attack, and then the 30-point win bonus when she wins a choice. If this is true, we’d need her to property over 126 sig strikes simply to secure more than 10x worth. I really don’t see that being true and I believe she more likely scores 80-85 DK points in a decision triumph. At her salary, that will not win anyone the big $25k. That’s the prize I’m shooting so that is why she is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 69-41 to get +237.39u (+$23,739) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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